Two central banks decide this week, and nine weeks to year-end
Both the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve announce rate decisions on Wednesday. Information as of Monday, October 26, 2026.
Market in 60 seconds
- Bank of Canada. The policy rate is currently 2.25%. In a Reuters poll taken October 21 to 23, 19 of 34 economists expected the Bank to raise it to 2.50% on Wednesday, with others expecting it to hold. Economists who expected a hold pointed to softer employment, lower core inflation and a weak housing market.
- Stocks. It was a choppy week for the S&P/TSX Composite. The index fell about 1% on Thursday and hit a one-week low on Friday as falling gold prices and rising bond yields weighed, while the energy sector reached a record with U.S. crude above US$100.
- Why it matters. Both central banks are weighing the same question: whether high energy prices will spread into broader inflation. Their decisions affect borrowing costs and the interest earned on cash and bonds.
Planning point of the week: start your year-end checklist
There are about nine weeks left in the year. Several planning deadlines fall on December 31, and a few need lead time.
- TFSA. Contribution room is based on the calendar year. Confirm your available room with the CRA before contributing.
- RRSP. Contributions for the 2026 tax year can be made until March 1, 2027, but deciding early helps cash-flow planning.
- RESP, FHSA. Contributions made by December 31 count for this calendar year.
- Charitable donations. Gifts must be made by December 31 to claim them on your 2026 return. Donating securities directly can be tax-efficient and is worth discussing in advance.
- Tax-loss selling. A trade must settle by year-end to count for 2026. Check your dealer's last trade date and speak with us before selling.
- Your corporation. If your corporation has a December 31 year-end, decisions about salary, dividends and bonuses should be made before then. If you are considering equipment purchases because of the proposed Productivity Mega Deduction, remember it is still a proposal, not law. Check with your accountant.
On the calendar
- Wednesday, October 28: Bank of Canada interest rate decision and Monetary Policy Report. U.S. Federal Reserve rate decision the same day.
- Monday, November 16: Statistics Canada releases October inflation data.
- Wednesday, December 9: Next Bank of Canada decision.
Sources: Reuters poll as reported by Canadian media; TMX Money; Canadian Press market reports; Canada Revenue Agency.
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